2011/12 MY to be the period of Great volatility for the world market of vegetable oils-price forecas
2011-10-04 16:45:06
In the terms of high forecasts of the global sunflower and palm oils production, in 2011/12 MY the world market of vegetable oils will come to the period of "Great volatility", reported Dorab Mistry, one of the leading analysts in the field of vegetable oils, director of Godrej International. The expert was one of the key speakers at the conference “Globoil India” in Mumbai.
In particular, the expert expects that in the nearest 5-8 weeks the cost of crude palm oil on the Malaysian stock exchange in Kuala Lumpur will fluctuate within the range of 2800-3000 MYR/t (1 MYR = 0.31 USD). Then, beginning from December 2011, the prices will make up lost grounds. Worsening of the weather conditions and reducing of the sowing areas under oil palms is likely to be the main engine of the trend. As a result, by April - June, the price of palm oil in Malaysia will possibly reach the level of 4000 MYR/t. At the same time, the analyst forecasted the general production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2011/12 MY at the level of 19 and 25.5 mln tonnes, respectively.
D.Mistry announced more modest forecast concerning soybean oil prices: before the beginning of spring the product prices will stay at the level of 1200-1250 USD/t FOB. The growth in demand from the biodiesel industry in the USA may make some of the impetus for the increased cost of the product on the futures exchange in Chicago. Nevertheless, the cash market will not affect the indicated trend. By April-June 2012 quotation of soybean oil in Chicago may rise by 0.65-0.7 USD/t of the product.
According to the speaker, sunflower oil will be offered cheaper compared to soybean oil prices until January 2012, but, if market participants have any concerns about coming of the Argentinian products on the market, the prices for sunflower oil may rise.