UkrAgroConsult knocks soaring Ukraine grain hopes
2011-09-13 17:43:21
UkrAgroConsult put the brakes on the latest surge in hopes for Black Sea farming, lifting its forecast for the Ukraine grains harvest, but to nowhere near as high as official estimates.
The influential analysis group lifted its estimate for Ukraine's corn harvest by 500,000 tonnes to a record 15.5m tonnes, saying the crop had developed "110-130 and more" cobs per 100 plants, with "good numbers of kernels per cob".
"Moderate air temperatures and enough soil moisture led to a longer than usual period when green leaves remained in plants in many areas and to active plant growth," UkrAgroConsult said.
Nonetheless, its estimate remained below that of a US Department of Agriculture figure upgraded on Monday by 1.5m tonnes to 18.0m tonnes.
Junior Ukraine agriculture minister Mykola Bezguly two weeks ago said the crop could potentially reach 20m tonnes.
'Data overstated'
And UkrAgroConsult was more downbeat on prospects for other crops too, noting the "frequent rains" which disrupted the summer harvest, and "entailed considerable grain crop losses and worsened the grain quality".
The group kept at 20.6m tonnes its forecast for the wheat crop despite a lift to 23.2m tonnes in the Ukraine farm ministry's forecast. The USDA on Monday lifted its estimate by 1.0m tonnes to 22.0m tonnes.
"During the harvest we received information that the yield and area data were overstated and the real total crop would be below official estimates," the Kiev-based group said.
The barley crop was pegged at 8.3m tonnes, below a farm ministry forecast of 9.48m tonnes and a USDA estimate raised by 500,000 tonnes to 9.0m tonnes.
"In the Steppe zone, [spring barley] was badly affected by May's drought, resulting in low grain yields," UkrAgroConsult said.
Total grains
The group's overall estimate for the Ukraine grains harvest was lifted by 535,000 tonnes to 46.79m tonnes, reflecting the higher forecast for corn and uplifts for buckwheat, millet and rye output too.
Mr Prysyazhnyuk, the Ukraine farm minister, last week pegged the total grains crop at 51m tonnes.