UNCTAD Projects India's 2011 GDP Growth At 8.1%
2011-09-07 12:53:17
In the midst of an anticipated global slowdown to 3 percent in 2011 from around four percent GDP growth in 2010, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development or UNCTAD in its Trade and Development Report 2011" released Tuesday by economist and JNU professor Jayati Ghosh has projected India's economic is set to grow by 8.1 percent in 2011, compared to 8.6 percent in 2010, the fastest rate of expansion in the world after China.
Surpassing India during the year would be the East Asian giant China with a growth rate of 9.4 percent, slightly lower than the 10.3 percent posted in 2010.
While the world economy is slowing down to around 3 per cent in 2011, growth performance is strong in developing economies, which have resumed their pre-crisis growth trend and are expanding at above 6 percent this year. In contrast, developed economies will only grow between 1.5 and 2 percent in 2011. Transition economies continue recovering from the steep fall in 2009 with growth rates at around 4 percent, the report said.
In South Asia, India continues to pursue rapid economic growth (close to 8 percent), based mainly on the expansion of domestic demand, but also on the positive contribution of net exports, The TDR 2011 said.
Interestingly, UNCTAD's growth projection for India during the calendar year is only marginally lower than the International Monetary Fund's estimated of 8.2 percent and slightly above the 8 percent level forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for the current fiscal year. The various estimates are also in line with the World Bank's projection of 8 percent 2011-12 and the Asian Development Bank's 8.2 percent for the fiscal.
The South Asia region, UNCTAD said, is likely to be among the best performers globally, with a growth of seven percent in 2011. On the other hand, growth in the U.S. is likely to remain low on account of low domestic demand, stagnating wages and employment. while the European debt crisis is also expected to act as a significant drag on the global growth. As for India, UNCTAD noted that its growth story is mainly on account of domestic demand.