Banking system growth will slow down in H1 - analysts
2011-08-15 16:23:08
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, total credit portfolio increased in July by 0.6% tо UAH 770 billion (+6.3% since the year start) despite reduction in the deposit base by 0.5% tо UAH 459 billion (+10.9% since the beginning of the year, 1 USD - 7.97 UAH). Interest rates on hryvnia and currency credits fell on average by 0.1 percentage points to 13.9% and by 0.4 percentage points to 9.5% respectively.
At the same time, interest rates on hryvnia deposits remained at the previous level of 6.8%, whereas rates on currency deposits grew by 0.2 percentage points to 5.2%.
As Anastasiya Tuyukova, Dragon Capital analyst, said, growth of crediting took place at the expense of legal persons (+0.8% in July and +9.0% since the year start). Crediting of natural persons also showed a net increment by 0.1% to June data (however, till now, minus 0.5% since the year start).
Banks continued to increase crediting in the hryvnia (+1.6%, month against month and +10.6% since the year start), whereas currency loans reduced according to July data (-0.5%, month against month and +1.4% since the year start).
Therefore, the share of currency credits fell to 44.4% in total portfolio (-0.5 pp month against month and -2.2 pp since the year start), strengthening stability of banks against currency shocks.
A deposit base of banks reduced in July (by -0.5%, month against month). This dynamics became a result of reduction in corporate deposits by 3.8% in July (or - UAH 6.3 billion), which may be explained by a growth of tax payments to the budget (including excises) and an outflow of the funds from non-resident deposits.
Private deposits showed a positive dynamics, having increased by 1.4%, month against month (+11.2% since the year start). At the same time, hryvnia deposits formed 64% of total growth. In total, July results speak about the continued renewal of crediting.
"However, taking into consideration a recent spread of panic on the world financial markets, we believe that results of Ukrainian banks in H2 will be weaker against the expected results, which means a slowdown in the rates of crediting growth, reduction in the inflow of deposits, a certain rise in risk of assets quality. Presently, we do not expect repetition of 2008 situation. Our basic scenario envisages some slowdown in the growth of banking activities in H2 and a delay in full-fledged renewal for 2012-2013," Tuyukova summed up.