Russia’s economy probably slowed in the second quarter as industrial growth eased and inflation eroded consumer buying power, leaving the world’s largest energy exporter lagging behind emerging-market peers.

Gross domestic product expanded 4 percent from a year earlier in the April-June period, compared with 4.1 percent in the first quarter, according to the median forecast of 14 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Economy Ministry gave a preliminary estimate of 3.7 percent last month. The Federal Statistics Service may report the figure today or tomorrow.

“Important drivers of economic growth such as construction and transportation, as well as consumer demand and retail trade, were sluggish,” Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at Moscow- based Otkritie Capital, said yesterday by phone. He forecasts growth of 3.8 percent.

Russia is struggling to return to pre-crisis growth rates as a slowing global recovery curbs demand for its commodity exports. President Dmitry Medvedev is targeting annual growth of 8 percent within five years to keep pace with so-called BRIC peers Brazil, India and China. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in May that Russia should almost double GDP per capita within 10 years to become a top-five global economy.

Industrial production advanced 4.8 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, down from a 5.9 percent gain in the first three months, according to the statistics service. Natural resources output fell while manufacturing grew.

Sales at carmakers such as OAO AvtoVAZ, the country’s largest, continued to surge in the second quarter before the government’s cash-for-clunkers rebate program ended in July.

Popularity Dips

Russia’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 7 percent during Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 before plunging 7.8 percent in 2009. The government forecasts a 4.2 percent expansion this year, slipping to 3.5 percent in 2012, when Russians will elect their next president. Both Medvedev and Putin have said they may run in the March 4 vote.

Support for Russia’s top two politicians, known as the ruling tandem since Putin chose Medvedev to succeed him in 2008, has dipped as inflation during the first half of the year eroded household spending power.

Consumer-price growth peaked at 9.6 percent in April and May before easing in June. Real disposable incomes fell 2.5 percent in the second quarter, according to the statistics service.

The central bank expects inflation within its 7 percent target, the lowest since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Bank Rossii left interest rates unchanged for a third month in August, citing a balance between risks from inflation and a slowing economy. Central banks in China, India and Brazil tightened monetary policy last month.

‘Unstable Investment Climate’

Economists cited disappointing investment volumes as a reason for lower-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth. Net capital outflows from Russia slowed to $9.9 billion in the second quarter, from $21.3 billion in the first quarter and $34 billion in 2010, according to preliminary central bank data.

“Despite high oil prices, capital outflows continued, which speaks to the unstable investment climate and investor caution about Russia,” Yaroslav Lissovolik, chief economist at Deutsche Bank in Moscow, said yesterday by phone. “To boost economic growth rates, Russia needs above all to make the economy more attractive for investment.”

To lure investment, Medvedev has pledged to sell stakes in state companies such as OAO Rosneft, the country’s largest oil producer, to reduce the state’s sway over the economy.

The economy should pick up in the second half on growth in the agricultural sector, Lissovolik said. So far, this year’s wheat harvest is 11 percent higher than a year ago, while yields are 35 percent better, the Agriculture Ministry said yesterday. Russia endured its worst drought in half a century last year.

“The third quarter may be significantly better because of agriculture,” Otkritie’s Tikhomirov said. “A good harvest may drive the economy to 4.5 percent growth.”

Bloomberg