In 2011 Belarus’ foreign trade deficit is expected to reach $5.7 billion, Roman Brodov, Head of the Central Office for Foreign Economic Policy of the Belarusian Economy Ministry, told media on 3 August.

“Our estimation of the foreign trade balance in 2011 is close to the annual forecast that has been set by the relevant decree at minus $5.7-5.9 billion,” the official said.

In H1 2011 Belarus’ foreign trade deficit amounted to $4.5 billion. Roman Brodov warned against drawing preliminary conclusions, against simply doubling the figure to achieve the annual one. The official believes that the trends registered in H1 2011 may not be repeated in H2 1011.

Those are changes in consumer priorities, a skyrocketing demand for certain commodities, and changes in oil trade terms. In January-May 2011 Belarus’ foreign trade deficit reached 11.8% of the GDP. Without car imports it would have been 7.6% of the GDP.

Roman Brodov said that a foreign trade deficit is not a problem by itself. Many successful economies have a trade deficit. For instance, the trade deficit exceeds $140 billion in the UK (6-6.5% of the GDP). In France it is as large as $60-70 billion (2-3% of the GDP). Poland also has a foreign trade deficit. Roman Brodov believes that a foreign trade deficit has an invigorating effect on the economy in small doses.

news.belta.by