As of July 18 132.7 thousand tons of grains were shipped, including 21.5 thousand tons of wheat, 67.2 thousand tons of barley and 32.1 thousand tons of corn. In the near future shipment of 257.8 thousand tons of grain including 169.9 thousand tons of barley and 63 tons of wheat is expected.

Given the data from different sources, as of July 25, shipping is unlikely to exceed 400 thousand tons. Based on July results it is very likely that exports will not even reach 500 thousand tons. Prioir grain export quotas during the last season, 1.5 million tons was considered to be a decent result.

There are two main reasons that are seen to cause such situation. The first reason includes existing grain export quotas and new regulation that does not return VAT to grain exporters. These two regulations basically directly contributed to lowering of prices for grains and exporters are not willing to sell at such low price at the moment.

Second major reason is damping of Russian grains on the international markets. Low-prices for Russian grain contribute to decline in price of Ukrainian grains as well. Thus it is possible that currently Ukrainian grain exporters are waiting for the prices to go up and then start the export.

As the matter of fact Ukrainian exporters were ready for such situation and have either purchased storage facilities for grain or turned in grain volumes for storage elsewhere.

UkrAgroConsult