A growth of the real gross national product of Ukraine in 2011-2012 is expected at 4%, inflation - about 11%, the macroeconomic review for November 2010 published on the National Bank official website reads.

"Under the unchangeable monetary policy in 2011-2012, a growth of the real GDP is expected at a potential level (about 4%). On the one hand, trade conditions will worsen due to further growth of prices for gas and oil that will limit the economy growth. However, on the other hand, the fiscal policy will be rather mild under a substantial excess of the expenditure side over the revenue side," the review says.

At the same time, the National Bank notes that the monetary conditions on average in 2011-2012 will be at a neutral level.

It is also noted that in 2011 inflation will be at a rather high level, at the same time, in 2012 the NBU forecasts its considerable lowering down.

"Inflation in 2010-2011 is expected at 11%, mainly due to a low yield of grain crops, deterioration of inflation expectations and the need to raise tariffs for gas, electricity and heating. At the same time, the core inflation will be within the frames of the target index of 2010 (about 8% that corresponds to the target of keeping the core inflation at up to 10%, according to the Memorandum with the IMF), and it will continue to slow down in 2011. Considerable lowering down of consumer inflation is expected in 2012, since over this period no considerable rise of prices regulated administratively is expected, a considerable growth of the economic potential is also expected as a result of holding UEFA EURO 2012," the review notes.

According to the State Statistics Committee, inflation in Ukraine in October 2010 against September made up 0.5%, since the year start (against December 2009) - 7.9%.

GDP in Q3 2010 against Q3 2009, in constant prices of 2007, amounted to 103.5%, and against Q 2 2010 with consideration of a seasonal factor - 100.1%.

UKRINFORM