China To See "More Moderate" Growth In Coming Months
2011-06-16 11:45:25
Chinese economic growth may moderate further in the coming months due to weak exports, the Conference Board said Thursday.
The Conference Board said that its leading indicator for Chinese economy rose 0.2 percent month-on-month to 154.5 in April, slower than a 0.9 percent increase in March.
Conference Board economist Bill Adams said that the indicator's recent slower trend is consistent with more moderate growth in economic activity in coming months. Cooler economic conditions in the U.S. and Europe have also contributed to weaker conditions for the export sector since the beginning of the year.
The index has increased modestly in the early months of 2011, supported by expansion in credit and construction activity, despite weakness in consumer expectations and production indicators, Adams said.
The coincident economic index, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.3 percent in April to 201.8, at the same pace as in the previous month.
Preliminary figures show that China's economy grew 9.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier after a 9.8 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China will grow by 9.5 percent each in 2011 and 2012, while the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development sees a 9 percent growth for the economy this year.
Chinese policymakers are caught in a double bind with rising inflation on one hand and signs of slowdown in growth on the other. Official data released earlier this week showed that inflation climbed to a 34-month high of 5.5 percent in May from 5.3 percent in April.
Later in the day, the central bank decided to increase the reserve requirement rate for banks for the sixth time this year, taking the ratio for big banks to a record 21.5 percent. The bank has raised interest rates four times since October 2010.
Meanwhile, a survey by the People's Bank of China showed that Chinese consumers' inflation expectations eased slightly in the second quarter, though their dissatisfaction with the current consumer price levels increased further.
The bank depositors survey conducted among 20,000 households in 50 cities showed that the future inflation expectations index fell 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter to 72.2 percent.
A separate survey of Chinese bankers found that 65.5 percent now expect policy to tighten in the coming quarter compared 66.1 percent in the previous survey.