Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin likes ambitious projects. On Thursday he promised his country’s gross domestic product per head would double in a decade, allowing Russia a place in the top five of the world’s largest economies.

“We are setting an ambitious task of becoming one of the world’s five largest economies in ten years, and GDP per capita should grow from slightly more than $19,000 today to $35,000 and higher,” he said in a televised speech at a business forum.

Mr. Putin didn’t provide the source of his GDP calculations. The $19,000 figure is close to that of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and of the World Bank, at purchasing power parity in “today’s dollars”. The figure adjusted for inflation is below $11,000.

At the beginning of his first term as president in 2000, he said Russia’s GDP should double by 2010. This hasn’t fully materialized, partly due to the global financial crisis and the resulting drop in the prices of oil, gas and other commodities, on which Russia’s economy largely depends. “Doubling the GDP”, a catchphrase of Kremlin backers for a while, died a quiet death years ago.

An economist in one of the top Moscow-based investment banks, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Mr. Putin’s current target is “hardly achievable.” With all of today’s conditions unchanged, such a rate of growth would imply “a ridiculously high oil price,” a very strong ruble and a fast-growing economy, the economist said.

The target may seem preposterously ambitious, but there are some ways to get there. There’s a chance that Russia’s economy modernizes, reverses the current trend of capital outflow and decelerating growth, and becomes a shining example of prosperity. Creative use of statistics may help produce a commendable result, on paper.

And there’s another way. As the Russian population declines, GDP per capita will grow even if total nominal GDP stays the same.

The Wall Street Journal