Warsaw. Think tank IBnGR expects GDP growth at 3.7% in 2011, 4.1% in 2012
2011-05-05 15:20:40
The economic growth will likely amount to 3.7% in 2011 and will inch up further to 4.1% in 2010 (vs. last year's seasonally unadjusted 3.8%), according to the latest macroeconomic forecasts published by the Gdansk Institute for Market Economics (IBnGR).
According to its estimates, in Q1/2011, GDP rose by 4.1% y/y (vs. 4.4% y/y growth estimated for Q4/2010), and should ease gradually to 3.8% in Q2/2011, to 3.6% in Q3 and to 3.3% in Q4. The 2012 growth will be achieved mainly thanks to rising investments and the labour market's improvement, the institute said.
The IBnGR expects the registered jobless rate to fall to 10.8% in December, 2011 (from 12.3% in December, 2010) and further to 9.6% a year later.
In H1/2011, it expects inflationary pressures to continue to rise, but the trend should be reversed in the second part of the year due to the tightening of monetary policy. All in all, consumer inflation should amount to 3.0% y/y in December, 2011 and to 2.9% a year later (vs. 3.1% y/y in December, 2010); the average annual inflation is seen flat at 3.2% in 2011.
IBnGR's forecasts
|
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
|
| GDP |
3,8 |
3,7 |
4,1 |
| Added value: manufacturing |
9,2 |
7,4 |
7,5 |
| Added value: construction |
3,8 |
8,6 |
11,8 |
| Added value: market services |
1,5 |
2,5 |
2,9 |
| Domestic demand |
3,9 |
3,9 |
3,8 |
| Total consumption |
3,2 |
3,1 |
3,8 |
| individual consumption |
3,2 |
3 |
3,9 |
| Investments |
-2 |
7,4 |
8,1 |
| Sold production |
|
|
|
| in manufacturing |
9,8 |
7,9 |
10 |
| in construction |
3,5 |
10,1 |
12,6 |
| Inflation (CPI; average) |
2,6 |
3,2 |
3 |
| Inflation (CPI; end-period) |
3,1 |
3 |
2,9 |
| Money supply (M3, end-period) |
8,6 |
9,1 |
9,9 |
| Gross wages, real terms |
1,4 |
3,3 |
3,5 |
| Average employment in economy |
0,9 |
1,7 |
2,5 |
| Registered jobless rate (end-period) |
12,3 |
10,8 |
9,6 |
| Exports (GUS) |
10,3 |
6,2 |
6,7 |
| Imports (GUS) |
10,6 |
6,7 |
6,3 |
| 12-month C/A as % of GDP |
-3,2 |
-3,9 |
-4,5 |
| Average USD/ PLN rate (NBP) |
3,02 |
2,8 |
2,7 |
| Average EUR/ PLN rate (NBP) |
3,99 |
3,8 |
3,7 |
Source: IBnGR