Sharp deterioration of the IMF forecast of Ukraine's current account deficit for 2011 is related primarily to a recent growth of oil prices and, respectively, to a rise of target prices for energy goods.

This will inevitable tell on the foreign trade balance of such energy-depending country as Ukraine, chief economist of Dragon Capital investment company Olena Belan believes.

According to her, new IMF estimates on the currency account deficit correspond to the company's forecasts. "At the same time, we expect that the capital inflow also should be preserved at a sufficient level in order to fully cover the current account deficit," Belan notes.

The company also shares the IMF opinion regarding other key macroeconomic indexes of Ukraine for 2011, except for deficit of the state administration sector, which Dragon Capital forecasts at 3.3% ВВП.

"In our opinion, continuation of the conservative budget policy will be the main task for the government in the nearest future years and is the necessary condition for stable recovery of the economy," Belan summed up.

Earlier, the IMF confirmed forecast of the real GDP growth of Ukraine in 2011 at 4.5%, but considerably worsened the current account deficit forecast to 3.6% of GDP (from the earlier expected 1.3%).

In 2011-2012, oil according to the IMF will cost USD 107-198/barrel on average.

UKRINFORM