According to Arabian Business.com the primary losers from Ukraine’s barley export ban are Saudi camel owners and Ukrainian farmers, while the biggest beneficiary is Australia which has stepped in to replace Ukrainian exports. Saudi Arabia, the largest global barley importer, has turned to growers including Australia for supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Feed-barley futures traded on the Australian Stock Exchange jumped 51 percent in the past year as Russia also restricted exports and crops from Canada to Kazakhstan were ruined by flooding and drought. If the quota system in Ukraine goes into the next year, the traditional customers will have to source somewhere else, and that could be very bullish for the prices, said Pierre Begoc, general director of the Kiev branch of Agritel, a Paris-based consultant to 2,000 farmers. It’s clear for us that the country will have enough goods to export. The question is whether they export it or not. Ukraine’s farmers will probably reap 45.5 million metric tonnes of grain this year, 16 percent more than last year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 12 traders, producers and analysts. The barley crop may expand 24 percent to 10.5 million tonnes and wheat 13 percent to 19 million tonnes, the survey showed.

UkrAgroConsult