Agriculture consultancy UkrAgroConsult increased its forecast for Ukraine’s 2014/15 wheat exports to 10.0 million tonnes from a previous outlook of 9.5 million. UkrAgroConsult said that Ukraine had exported 4.4 million tonnes of wheat in the first three months of this season which runs from July to June, or around 40 percent of the volume of wheat available for exports in 2014/15.

“Devaluation of the Ukrainian currency hryvnia was the major driver for high exports, which raised the competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat in the world market,” the consultancy said in a statement on Tuesday. Ukraine’s currency has lost about 40 percent of its value so far this year due to an economic turmoil caused by military conflict in eastern regions. The impact of Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula earlier this year is expected to be slim, given the region produced about 760,000 tonnes of grain, including 351,000 tonnes of wheat in 2013, accounting for about 1.2 percent of Ukraine’s total grain harvest.

“Traditionally, wheat shipments are the highest in September. During the next months the attractiveness of wheat exports usually declines, and exporters switch to corn,” it added. Ukraine exported about 1.7 million tonnes of wheat via its sea ports in September 1-22, preliminary data showed, going mainly to Egypt, the European Union and Pakistan. UkrAgroConsult said wheat exports could fall in October due to rising competition from neighbours Russia and Kazakhstan, as well as more competitively priced European wheat.

The consultancy said that Ukrainian-origin soft milling wheat was offered at between $235 and $237 per tonne Black Sea FOB while French wheat cost $217. UkrAgroConsult said it increased its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat harvest this year to 21.62 million tonnes from a July forecast of 21.0 million citing a higher wheat yield.

“Despite the reduction of planted area, this year wheat production is the highest for the last five years. A rich harvest was obtained owing to record high productivity of early grain crops, particularly wheat,” it said. The yield of wheat could rise to 3.58 tonne per hectare this year from 3.20 tonne in 2013, while the harvested area decreased to 6.05 million hectares from 6.57 million hectares a year earlier.

The consultancy also said that the quality of wheat was “somewhat worse” than during the two previous years. The share of milling wheat fell to less than 60 percent this year from about 75 percent in 2013, UkrAgroConsult said. Ukrainian agriculture ministry said this month the share of milling wheat in Ukraine’s 2014 wheat harvest would be 13 percent below the previous year’s level. Agriculture ministry inspectors had examined 14.6 million tonnes of wheat, or 60 percent of wheat harvested in 2014, before making the projection.

Reuters