'Dr. Doom' makes sunnier prognosis for 2014
2014-01-03 10:45:05
Nouriel Roubini, labeled "Dr. Doom" when he correctly predicted a housing collapse would lead to the market crash in 2007, is out this week with a relatively optimistic forecast for global economic growth in 2014.
"After a year of subpar 2.9 percent global growth, what does 2014 hold in store for the world economy?" Roubini writes in an opinion piece on the Project Syndicate website. "The good news is that economic performance will pick up modestly in both advanced economies and emerging markets."
Roubini, who recently told Bloomberg News that he prefers to be called "Dr. Realist" rather than "Dr. Doom," says headwinds to global economic growth are easing:
"The threat, for example, of a eurozone implosion, another government shutdown or debt-ceiling fight in the United States, a hard landing in China, or a war between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation, will be far more subdued."
Led by the U.S., Roubini predicts that advanced economies will grow at an annual pace near 1.9 percent, after growing only 1 percent in 2013.
The U.S., which saw its economic recover pick up in the fourth quarter, can expect to benefit from the shale-energy revolution, improvement in the labor and housing markets, and the "reshoring" of manufacturing.
Outside the U.S., growth will remain anemic in most advanced economies, particularly in the European Union, where fundamental problems like public debt and high unemployment remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, emerging economies will grow faster in 2014 thanks to strong exports and a robust Chinese economy. He sees 5 percent growth across emerging economies, beating the 4.8 percent below-trend growth seen last year.