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«AgroInvest» — News — UK inflation set to fall back to target in near term: Capital Economics

UK inflation set to fall back to target in near term: Capital Economics

2013-10-16 10:55:50

Consumer price inflation in the U.K., which stayed unchanged in September, is set to fall back to the central bank's 2-percent target within the next few months and remain low thereafter, Capital Economics UK Economist Samuel Tombs said.

The slowdown in inflation would ease the squeeze on households' real earnings and cool investors' fears that one of the inflation knockouts to the MPC's forward guidance will be activated, the firm said.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics on Tuesday showed that consumer price inflation remained unchanged at 2.7 percent in in September, contrary to expectations for a fall, as an increase in core consumer prices was offset by a fall in petrol prices. However, the figure was slightly below the 2.9 percent rate forecast by the Bank of England in August.

According to Tombs, the rise in core inflation is unlikely to trigger an upward trend as September's rise mainly reflected a spike in airfares inflation, which is often volatile from month to month.

The economist said that the inflation data, which will be used to determine next year's increase in a variety of taxes and benefits, shows that inflation-linked benefits will rise by 2.7 percent in April 2014.

Separate data showed that producer output price inflation eased to 1.2 percent in September from 1.7 percent in August.

While, the effect of the slowdown will take a while to feed through to the high street, last year's fall in producer output price inflation should bring core goods inflation down in the coming months, the economist noted.

 

 

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