Moscow will lose billions if Ukraine joins Customs Union - Russian expert
2013-10-10 16:30:07
In case that Ukraine joins the Customs Union, this fact will have a negative impact on the Russian economy, since Moscow will have to fulfill a promise to substantially cut a gas price for Kyiv.
Director of Macroeconomic Research of the National Research Institute “High School of Economics” (Russia) Sergey Aleksashenko has said.
“Non-signing of the Agreement with Europe and Ukraine's Customs Union accession will have a negative impact on Russia. Since in this case, we will have to cut a gas price for Ukraine by 30%. “Well, we've promised to do that,” he said.
As the expert noted, the matter concerns billions of dollars, which the Russian economy will subsidize within the Customs Union frames.
“If Ukraine suddenly decides to join the Customs Union, Russia will have to give a kind of compensation to Ukraine. And this compensation may be very large. In order to make clear, for instance, USD 20 billion is 1% of Russian GDP. Therefore, if Ukraine received at least half of what Belarus receives, this means for Russia minus 1% of Russian GDP. This is not a small price. Therefore, if you (Ukraine) suddenly, for which I hope very much, sign the Agreement with the European Union, this will be absolutely better for us. At least, we will not lose this money,” the Russian expert stressed.
Aleksashenko also considers statements about negative economic consequences for Russia from Ukraine's accession to the free trade area with the European Union as groundless. In particular, he notes that he does not understand what the Russian politicians fear by making statements that Ukrainian or European products under the guise of Ukrainian will “gush” to the Russian market.
“"All the talks that European goods will gush to us seem to me from evil. This will not happen. But they (Russian politicians - Ed.) have anyway to explain why we do not like this. Actually, we do not like it exactly because to restore the Soviet Union without Ukraine is impossible. There is a golden dream: to restore the Soviet Union in one form or another," the Russian expert is convinced.