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«AgroInvest» — News — Moody's plays safe in downgrading Ukraine's rating - experts

Moody's plays safe in downgrading Ukraine's rating - experts

2013-09-30 13:34:40

Moody's was guided by a principle “better be sure than sorry” in downgrading Ukraine's rating.

Head of the Eavex Capital analytical department Dmytro Churin has said about this, ZN.UA reports.

“He pays attention to the fact that Ukraine's rating at Caa1 has been already set by Moody's in 2009 on the backdrop of the difficult economic situation in the whole world. Now, the global situation looks better. Moreover, comparing the key macroeconomic indexes of the country in 2009 and 2013, the difference is well noticeable, the expert says,” the publication writes.

At the same time, chief analyst of the Finance Markets block at Credit Agricole Bank Oleksandr Pecherytsyn notes that the extent of a negative impact of possible trade restrictions on the part of Russia following signing of the Association Agreement with the EU, to which Moody's points out, is not clearly defined. And the effect cannot occur simultaneously, as the Russian economy will take time to refocus on the consumption of other sources of supply in the event of such a decision by the Russian leadership.

"Besides, the potential positive factors that will affect the Ukrainian economy as a result of the signing of association with the EU were not taken into account," the expert says.

International speculators can be among main beneficiaries from downgrading of Ukraine's ratings by Moody's, who, by purchasing sovereign Eurobonds at lesser prices will profit from their further resale. This scheme was widely used in the case with Greece, the experts note. According to them, the situation with prices for Ukrainian Eurobonds will stabilize over the nearest weeks. However this will take place at high levels - no less than 10% annual.

To remind, as reported by Ukrinform, Managing Partner of the Capital Times investment company Eric Naiman expressed an opinion on his page in the social network that Moody's wittingly or unwittingly pushes Ukraine to take a current tranche from the IMF. In this case, practice has shown that the rating agencies are not liable for any errors, bias or prejudice, for this reason a number of states have begun to sue them.

 

 

Ukrinform