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«AgroInvest» — News — Bernanke opens door to scaling back stimulus later this year

Bernanke opens door to scaling back stimulus later this year

2013-06-20 11:39:25

The Federal Reserve has maintained the pace of its $85 billion a month bond buying plan and gave no explicit indication that tapering of monetary stimulus is imminent.

However, the Fed might be able to unwind some of its asset purchases if economic conditions warrant later this year, Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a press conference explaining the decision.

After a two-day meeting, the Fed announced they will hold their benchmark interest rate at effectively zero. And despite mounting evidence of a robust recovery in the housing market, the Fed will wait for a more significant drop in unemployment before scaling back its controversial asset purchase program.

A national unemployment rate of 7.6 percent remains a significant concern to the Fed. Late last year, policy makers promised that support measures will be kept in place until unemployment drops below 6.5 percent.

Fed officials do not expect to hit that mark until sometime in 2014 at the earliest. That's a modest improvement from earlier expectations.

Low inflation is also giving the Fed plenty of reason to press on with quantitative easing -- core consumer prices are rising at their annual slowest rate in more than half a century.

The Fed targets 2 percent inflation, but core prices have been rising at a much slower 1.4 percent pace.

Bernanke has been able to convince most of his Fed colleagues of the wisdom of the QE plan, but a growing number of policy makers have expressed worries about the course of monetary policy.

There were two dissenting votes at this week's meeting.

San Francisco Fed President Esther L. George was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.

On the other hand, St. Louis President James Bullard, a vocal proponent of dovish policies, said the Fed should signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings.

The meeting took place against the backdrop of rumors that Bernanke will soon leave the central bank after two terms as Chairman.

President Barack Obama said in an interview with Charlie Rose on Monday that Bernanke has "already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to."

Janet Yellen, the Fed's vice-chair, has been tipped by Fed watchers as the front-runner to succeed Bernanke.

Regardless of who is leading the Fed, it is unlikely that benchmark interest rates will be hiked anytime soon. 15 of 19 Fed members do not see interest rates rising until at least 2015.

"The Fed will probably stop buying bonds at about the same time that the unemployment rate hits 7 percent," Bernanke said. "The first rate cut wouldn't take place until well after that."

Analysts say today's outcome hints at some change to Fed policy in the coming months.

"Bottom line, the Fed acknowledged a slightly better economic outlook and the market can only take that as a verbal first step to some change in policy at their next meeting in July," said Peter Boockvar at Morgan Stanley.

 

 

 

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