The EU this week slashed its yield outlooks for wheat and rapeseed because of poor crops in the UK and other EU countries. But good overall global grain and oilseed crops are expected to replenish supplies later this year - and prices are therefore likely to continue falling.The Monitoring Agricultural Resources (Mars) service this week reduced average soft wheat yields across the EU-27 to an expected 5.54t/ha this year, having previously estimated 5.63t/ha, with rapeseed yields cut from 3.09t/ha to 3.06t/ha.The revised wheat forecast was down to "lowered yield expectations for the UK and Ireland, as well as for the Baltics, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland and Denmark," said Mars. Rapeseed was lower due to "a more negative outlook for the UK, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia, which was not compensated for by the improved forecast for Poland and slight improvement for Germany."Poor weather had delayed the planting of crops in EU countries but many had now made up for these delays, particularly in eastern Europe, said Mars.

By contrast, crop development in the UK and Ireland remained delayed by two to three weeks.Mars' revisions came as Macquarie published its revised global forecasts for grains and oilseeds. The bank said planting for 2013/14 had had a bad start with poor weather in the US badly delaying crops, but prices were nevertheless expected to come down once harvesting began. "As we look at the wider global market, we see improving production prospects elsewhere that should easily compensate for any potential US losses," the bank said. "We expect the world will still see a significant stock rebuild in 2013/14 and, as export competition intensifies, prices will fall to a level that will encourage the global consumer to aggressively store grain."


 

World Grain