Pressure on the hryvnia will be insignificant until at least mid-year.

This opinion was expressed by the experts interviewed by the Kommersant Ukraine.

"Indicators for February showed the absence of serious devaluation forecasts on the market. Obviously, in the following months, too, the pressure on the hryvnia will be negligible," says Oleksandr Pecherytsyn, a leading economist with the financial markets unit of Credit Agricole Bank.

"Most likely, the weak pressure on the hryvnia will continue until the middle of the year, and only in the fall the demand for currency may traditionally increase," agrees a chief economist with IC Dragon Capital, Elena Belan.

However, experts do not expect a positive balance of payments for the year. "In many ways, the current surplus was caused by small amounts of natural gas purchases (according to the NBU, in February they fell down by 36%), but the gradual recovery of the Ukrainian industry should lead to an increase in purchases. Additionally, the recovery of metallurgy is still very fragile. So in 2013 we expect a balance of payments deficit of $2 billion," Belan said.

As the Kommersant noted, the successful placement of government bonds and low volumes of gas purchases have improved the balance of payments - in the first two months of this year, its surplus was $1.7 billion This trend has dramatically reduced devaluation expectations.

Trade surplus was registered for two months in a row. According to the National Bank, the positive balance of payments in February was $1.29 billion, while in January it was four times less ($397 million). Such a high balance of payments was never reported in the past year. Thanks to this, the NBU painlessly paid off in February two IMF tranches totaling $740 million and increased its gold and forex reserves by $363 million.

In 2012, Ukraine's balance of payments deficit was $4.17 billion.

Ukrinform