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«AgroInvest» — News — US economy grows 2% in third quarter: AP survey

US economy grows 2% in third quarter: AP survey

2010-10-29 12:03:46

The U.S. economy likely expanded at a greater rate in the third quarter as American consumers loosened a tight grip on their wallets. But the expected pickup in growth wasn't strong enough to make a noticeable dent in high unemployment, the Associated Press reported.

Leading economists polled in a new AP Economy Survey predict the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2 percent in the July-September quarter. That would mark an improvement from the feeble 1.7 percent growth rate logged in April-June period. To knock down the unemployment rate, however, growth would need to be at least twice as fast as the 2 percent rate.

Looking ahead to the current quarter, economic growth isn't expected to be much better, logging just a 2.4 percent pace, according to the AP survey.

If that's that case, the economy will end 2010 on weaker footing than it started. In the first quarter, the economy expanded at a 3.7 percent pace.

"It's a half-speed economic rebound," said Brian Bethune, economist at HIS Global Insight.

One year after the recession ended, the economy has failed to generate the kind of growth needed to ratchet down unemployment and bring relief to 15 million Americans now out of work. The unemployment rate averaged 9.6 percent in the third quarter.

That's why the Federal Reserve is widely expected on November 3 to announce a second round of government bond buying. The program will pump billions of dollars into the economy. Doing so will lower rates on mortgages and other loans. The Fed hopes that cheaper credit will spur people and companies to boost spending.

Even if the Fed's plan works, economists said it is likely to provide only a modest boost to economic growth — perhaps a couple tenths of a percentage point — in the final quarter of this year. Still, the extra economic activity wouldn't be sufficient to drive down unemployment, economists said. The rate is still expected to be above 9 percent by the end of this year, even with new Fed aid.

"With this kind of economic growth, we're in for a long, painful haul," said Sean Snaith, an economics professor at the University of Central Florida.

The slight pickup anticipated in third-quarter growth would mainly reflect a mild uptick in consumer spending. A stock-market rebound made people feel better about spending, and bargains — from cars to electronics — also drew them out. Consumer spending probably rose at a 2.4 percent pace, up from a 2.2 percent rate in the second quarter. For a robust economic rebound, consumers would need to spend at a pace closer to 5 percent, the AP report said.

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