Ukraine’s market is full of rumors and is driven by rumor and who you know. We happen to be in constant contact with lots of people in the agribusiness world so we get a lot of rumors.

We were the first to state last year that Dakor was going to Bakmatiuk, and although we heard about Rize following the same path decided we should wait. The word got out a few weeks ago and now everyone seems to believe it has happened. However without an actual confirmation from Ukraine’s anti monopoly committee which would need to review a deal like this, it is still a rumor.

Of course we wouldn’t want our readers to miss out on the rumor that Nibulon has been sold to someone from Donetsk so we won’t talk about that.

There are other rumors such as the ones that the Ministry of agriculture receives from $15 to $30 per ton of quota, but it is a rumor just the same. However, traders seem to think it is so and they are the ones who are looking for the quota so should know.

Regardless of the rumors we would like to go back to our prediction we made seven weeks ago that M&A and other consolidation activity this year in Ukraine would reach or exceed $2,5 Billion. Looking at the full list of rumors – Dakor, Rize, and Nibulon, as well as two other agro holdings where investors are said to be doing due diligence, then our rough total for the value of these companies already exceeds $1,25 billion.

Perhaps we will some day know what is really happening in Ukraine when transparency increases. But until then our most valuable tools in the trade remain rumors and who you know.

UkrAgroConsult