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«AgroInvest» — News — China's export growth wanes, highlights need to go domestic

China's export growth wanes, highlights need to go domestic

2012-12-11 18:06:04

China's exports rose less than forecast last month, official data showed yesterday, underscoring the need to accelerate a shift towards domestic demand even as the nation confronts a jobless rate newly estimated at almost double the official figure.

Overseas shipments increased 2.9 per cent last month from a year earlier while imports were unchanged, the Customs Administration said yesterday. Exports were well below expectations for a 9-per-cent rise and far behind October's 11.6 per cent pace, while imports, falling short of the 2 per cent rise forecast, eased from a 2.4 per cent pace in the previous month.

The Christmas shipment season for smartphones from the world's biggest exporter of mobile phones came to an end last month, which analysts said might explain the softening.

China's exports to the United States - the world's largest economy - declined 2.6 per cent last month from a year earlier, the first drop since February last year, while sales to the European Union dropped 18 per cent, the sixth straight monthly slide, the data showed.

In the first 11 months of the year, China's exports and imports grew 5.8 per cent from the corresponding period a year earlier, running well below a government target of 10 per cent for this year.

The data emphasises the need for the Communist Party's new leadership, headed by Mr Xi Jinping, to reduce China's reliance on exports and investment spending to sustain expansion in the world's second-biggest economy.

Xinhua news agency yesterday cited Mr Xi as saying that the nation should not delay pushing for economic restructuring.

Mr Ren Xianfang, a Beijing-based analyst with IHS Global Insight, said: "The extremely weak export performance laid bare the fragility of the recovery, which is mainly driven by infrastructure investment. Mr Xi's leadership team should accelerate reform to unleash and boost domestic demand to make growth more sustainable and less susceptible to external headwinds."

But that drive is being undermined by high urban unemployment, which curbs consumer spending. The urban jobless rate has hit 8.1 per cent this year, the Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance said yesterday. The body, which derived the result from a poll of 8,438 households, is set up by the central bank's Institute of Financial Research and Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu.

The household survey result was much worse than that in the official quarterly poll. China's urban registered jobless rate, the only official measure of nationwide unemployment, was 4.1 per cent at the end of September, unchanged from the previous eight quarters, according to data from the Labour Ministry in Beijing.

Yesterday's export data was in sharp contrast with industrial production and retail sales figures released on Sunday that exceeded estimates.

"The export slowdown shows external demand faces uncertainty due to concerns over the fiscal cliff in the US," said Mr Zhang Zhiwei, Chief China Economist at Nomura in Hong Kong.

"Nonetheless it does not change our view that growth is on track for a strong recovery in Q4, as growth is mostly domestically driven."

Economic growth fell to a three-and-a-half-year low of 7.4 per cent in the three months ended September.

The economy is expected to expand 7.5 per cent this year, the China Securities Journal reported yesterday, citing Mr Yao Jingyuan, a senior researcher with China's Cabinet.

 

 

TODAY