Experts predict GDP growth of 1% in 2012
2012-11-27 11:05:47
The average expert evaluation of real GDP growth in Ukraine in November 2012 deteriorated from 1% to 2.3% in August.
These data are contained in the November consensus forecast made by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine on the basis of estimates of experts from 15 government and non-governmental organizations and published on the official website of the Ministry.
According to the consensus forecast, GDP growth in 2013 is expected to be 2.9%, whereas four months ago experts estimated it at 3.6%.
At the same time, inflation forecast (December to December) for 2012 improved from 5.8% to 3.6%, and for 2013 from 7.8% to 7.1%.
Assessment of the dynamics of the hryvnia growth to the dollar by the end of 2012 in November deteriorated to 8.41 UAH/$1 from 8.38 UAH/$1 in August, and by the end of next year to 8.81 UAH/$1 from 8.63 UAH/$1; the highest estimates for the current year amounted to 8.2 UAH/$1 and 8.8 UAH/$1, and for next year 8.35 UAH/$1 and 9.5 UAH/$1.
The estimate of the current account deficit in 2012 worsened from $10.22 billion to $12.085 billion, and in 2013 from $10.95 billion to $11.483 billion.
The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine envisaged in the state budget for 2012 a real GDP growth forecast of 3.9%. Ukraine's GDP in the third quarter of 2012 will decrease by 1.3% compared to the third quarter of 2011, while in the first quarter the increase was 2% and in the second 3%.