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«AgroInvest» — News — US inching towards edge of 'Fiscal Cliff'

US inching towards edge of 'Fiscal Cliff'

2012-11-02 16:57:47

That is about the doom-laden "Fiscal Cliff" scenario in the United States, which is being seen as the next major hurdle for the sputtering global economy to overcome.

The Cliff, which US policymakers will have to decide how to handle in the next couple of months, involves the introduction at the beginning of next year of major spending cuts and more taxes that would reduce the country's huge fiscal deficit, but which would also suck billions of dollars out of the world's biggest economy.

Some estimates say the measures could knock four percentage points off the US gross domestic product, which would bring the wobbly recovery there to a grinding halt and push the economy back into a recession, or even a depression.

So, legislators have some difficult choices to make.

If all the measures are introduced in full, the US deficit would be slashed but the economy would suffer in the short-term.

If some or all of the measures are withdrawn or postponed to preserve short-term growth, the deficit would continue to balloon, putting the US at risk of a euro-style crisis.

Whatever happens, the effects will be felt in Singapore. "Anything impacting the world's largest economy and knocking the wind out of the current, already shaky recovery, will certainly have an impact on our very open economy," said Mr Song Seng Wun, Executive Director and Regional Economist at CIMB Research.

In the very short-term, he thinks the biggest impact would be on the financial markets here as legislators wrangling over the issue would create a high level of uncertainty about what direction the US economy might be about to take.

"The consumer sector will follow, with investment confidence feeling the hurt," he added.

And yet, despite the nightmarish forecasts of what might happen in a worst-case scenario, there is a sense that perhaps we do not need to be battening down the hatches.

"I am sure Congress and the others involved will burn the midnight oil soon after next week's Presidential Election over these issues. They are not going to do nothing, as that would have dire consequences. They will somehow muddle through before reaching some kind of compromise by year-end," Mr Song observed with some confidence.

The consensus view certainly seems to be that decision-makers will decide to follow some kind of politically and economically acceptable middle path, even if it takes until the very last minute to reach a compromise.

But even that has some risks attached. According to a local banker, unless the Americans take some painful measures now, a downturn, "perhaps more severe than recent ones", would be unavoidable.

In that case, falling off The Cliff in the next couple of months might seem like a picnic in the park.

 

 

TODAY