Ukraine sends mixed signals
2012-11-01 14:26:34
On October 25th, 2012 Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine came out with the statement that wheat export ban will be enforced starting November 15th, 2012 due to the shortage of stocks within the country. Yesterday Minister of Social Policy and Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine stated that there will be no restrictions regarding grain exports from Ukraine. He stated that export restrictions are not only ineffective for ensuring food security of the country, but also significantly damage performance of national agricultural producers. He stated that due to lower global stocks of grian, its price has grown and continues to grow, therefore it is crucial to allow national producers take advantage of the situation.
AgroInvest comment: 43 million tons of wheat that will be harvested this year allow for approximately 20-22 million tons of exports. It is possible that export restrictions will not be implemented this year, partially due to Russia not using those trade barriers either. However, we can interpret these words by the following scenario: export restrictions will not be necessary since there will be no exports (ban implied). We will continue closely monitoring the situation and bringing you the latest news.
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