Foreign experts forecast GDP growth in Belarus at a modest 3-4% in 2012-2013. The official forecast envisages higher GDP targets for 2012 at 5.0–5.5%. The data is taken from Belarus Investment Guide 2012 prepared by well-known law firm SORAINEN jointly with Priorbank, BelTA has learnt.

“Potential drivers for GDP growth this year are seen in the gradual recovery of domestic demand boosted by government efforts to restore real household incomes (so as to avoid massive workforce migration) and some easing of monetary policy, as well as a positive contribution from net exports to GDP thanks to cheaper gas prices and sizable increase in oil sales to the EU,” the review says. On the other hand, according to the experts, export expansion potential will be limited by the fading devaluation effect and slower growth perspectives in Europe and Russia.

The experts note that Belarus has attained macroeconomic stability early this year. The deficit of foreign trade in goods and services shrank by almost 80% to $1.6 billion versus $7.5 billion a year ago. With this, export growth surpassed import growth (60% and 30% respectively). In Q1 2012 the country registered trade surplus of over $100 million. In early 2012 the Belarusian ruble remained stable contributing to a slowdown in inflation rates.

According to foreign experts, further development of the Belarusian economy "will depend, in the short term, on its ability to raise foreign resources to finance its growth and also on the monetary and fiscal policy and on measures to reform the economy in the long term and foreign market trends”.

Belarus Investment Guide 2012 has been prepared by Sorainen law firm in partnership with Priorbank for the third time. The guide is intended for those who are going to do or already do business in Belarus. The review of the business environment in Belarus pays special attention to the changes and trends in the economy, international cooperation within the framework of the Customs Union and the Single Economic Space, the development of trade and economic relations with the European Union, business climate in free economic zones and High-Tech Park, investment policy, privatization, investment legislation. The review of business environment explains the specifics of starting a business, currency regulation, legal framework, real estate, intellectual property, labor relations, etc.

Sorainen is a leading regional law firm with offices in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Belarus. The company advises international and national investors on all legal aspects of doing business in the Baltic states and Belarus.


 

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