World Bank downgrades outline for Ukraine's GDP growth to 2%
2012-07-19 14:36:00
According to the World Bank's estimate, GDP growth in Ukraine will fall to 2.5% (to 2% according to the previous forecast).
World Bank senior economist Ruslan Piontkovsky has said about this during presentation of the forecast, UKRINFORM reports.
"In 2013, growth will speed up to 3.5%, under condition of the balanced economy and in 2014 - growth is expected at the level of 4%, Piontkovsky said.
According to him, in H2, 2012, trends of the first half a year will continue. Ukrainian export will be weak as a result of the unfavorable foreign conjuncture (the world economy will slow down by 0.3%), and economic growth will be supported by a fiscal stimulus at over 2% of GDP (social initiatives). Growth of export is expected at 1.5%, import - at 4.3%.
The balance of payments will remain under the pressure. Current operations account will stabilize to some extent (gas import reduces), and an inflow will be reduced on the financial account.
Total budget deficit (including NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine) will grow to 5%.
Direction of consumer inflation will change and by the year end it will be 6.1%.
Under this situation, investors are not ready to risk and investment demand will reduce in H2.