Poor Bulgaria no longer aspires to be like Greece
2012-07-11 11:45:59
According to Ivan Krastev, a Bulgarian analyst, optimistic forecasters had the high hope 20 years ago that Bulgaria might become like Greece -- that is to say, "moderately democratic, but moderately corrupt." Now, he says, they hope Greece may become like Bulgaria: poor, but financially disciplined and not making too big a mess for others.So far Bulgaria has weathered the economic and euro crisis. Unemployment has crept up to 12 per cent, but that is half the levels in Greece and Serbia.
More than a million Bulgarians are thought to live abroad, working especially in Spain and Greece. Some have lost their jobs and come home, but the value of remittances sent back through banks has actually risen. In 2008, the official figure for remittances was 694 million euros, and last year it was 774 million euros.Bulgaria's GDP grew by a modest 1.7 per cent in 2011 and is expected to slow this year. A recent study suggests as much as 30 per cent of the economy is unrecorded.
Bulgarians are also miserable: A poll by the Open Society Institute found more than two-thirds of them expect the economy to stay the same or deteriorate in the next 12 months, and fully 56.7 per cent find the situation in the country "unbearable."Bulgaria is the poorest country in the European . The average wage is 3.50 euros an hour and the average monthly salary is only 360 euro
As 10 per cent of Bulgarian exports go to Greece and Greek banks hold 40 per cent of all Bulgarian loans, it is hardly surprising that Bulgarians are on edge. What makes them especially nervous, businessman Vassil Vassiliev says, is their past experience that whatever happens in western Europe "comes here a year or two later."
Vassiliev sends organized groups of workers to other EU countries, especially for seasonal work. He worries that political pressure on companies to replace his workers with the domestic unemployed could affect his business and thus Bulgaria's economy. Vassiliev thinks the country needs a plan to steer away from excessive dependence on the eurozone.