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«AgroInvest» — News — U.K. GDP Rises Twice as Much as Forecast on Stimulus

U.K. GDP Rises Twice as Much as Forecast on Stimulus

2010-10-26 11:56:35

Britain’s economy grew in the third quarter by twice as much as economists forecast as services and construction helped sustain the recovery’s momentum, easing pressure on officials to add stimulus.

Gross domestic product rose 0.8 percent in the three months through September after increasing 1.2 percent in the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. Economists forecast a 0.4 percent gain, according to the median of 35 predictions in a Bloomberg news survey.

Prime Minister David Cameron yesterday pledged a “relentless focus on growth” as his government embarks on spending cuts that will eliminate almost half a million jobs. Today’s GDP data, the first for the quarter from a Group of Seven nation, come as the Bank of England and its counterparts around the world decide whether more emergency measures are needed to give impetus to the global economy.

“I suspect it will be quite bumpy from here,” Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank AG in London, said in an interview before the report. “The third quarter numbers will not take full account of fiscal tightening, that is yet to come. The U.K. will grow, but the question is, will it grow sufficiently quickly to generate jobs?”

The GDP result is the second fastest growth reading since the first quarter of 2007, the statistics office said. Only Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London, predicted the 0.8 percent figure correctly. The lowest forecast, by Natixis, was for a 0.2 percent contraction.

Budget Cuts

Finance minister George Osborne last week detailed Britain’s deepest budget cuts since World War II. Cameron told executives yesterday that “this is an incredible opportunity” for “new start-ups to flourish, for innovations to drive growth and create jobs.” Opposition Labour Party leader Ed Miliband countered that Cameron lacks a plan for economic growth, and called for a “new approach” to supporting British industry.

Services, which make up 76 percent of GDP, grew 0.6 percent on the quarter, the statistics office said. Industrial production rose 0.6 percent, driven by a 1 percent jump in manufacturing. Construction increased by 4 percent on the quarter and 11 percent on the year, which was the fastest annual pace since 1988.

Standard Chartered Plc said on Oct. 22 it has hired about 7,000 additional employees so far this year and will continue to create jobs. U.K. homebuilder Redrow Plc on Sept. 9 reported a full-year profit.

Slowing Growth

Data still suggest the pace of growth may be slowing. Jobless benefit claims rose the most in eight months in September, while Lloyds Banking Group Plc’s Halifax unit said house prices fell the most on record. Retail sales unexpectedly dropped for a second month, and mortgage approvals fell to the lowest in 1 1/2 years.

Marks & Spencer Group Plc Chairman Stuart Rose said in an interview yesterday that a double-dip recession is unlikely after government-spending cuts offered some “clarity” to Britons.

The Bank of England left its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low of 0.5 percent this month and kept its asset-purchase program at 200 billion pounds ($315 billion). Policy makers will consider whether to buy more bonds at their decision on Nov. 4, a day after the U.S. Federal Reserve may increase stimulus at own policy meeting.

Minutes of the bank’s decision this month show U.K. officials are leaning towards making further emergency bond purchases to shore up the recovery. Seven of the bank’s nine policy makers voted for no change, Adam Posen favored more bond purchases and Andrew Sentance opted for an interest-rate increase. Inflation stayed at 3.1 percent in September, exceeding the government’s 3 percent limit for a seventh month.

Bloomberg