The International Grains Council (IGC) further lowered its global wheat production forecast for 2012-13 today to 671 million tons due to adverse weather conditions in Europe, Russia and Morocco.

In April, the London-based organisation had pegged the global wheat output at 676 millin tons for 2012-13. The revised forecast is lower than 695 million tons output 2011-12.

"Global crop prospects for 2012-13 remained mostly favourable during May, but adverse conditions lowered harvest expectations in the EU, Russia and Morocco, contributing to a 5 million tons cut in the world production forecast, to 671 million tons," IGC has said in its latest Grains Report.

World wheat consumption forecast has also been lowered to 681 million tons in 2012-13 from 688 million tons last year, it said.

China, with more than 100-million tons output, is the world's largest wheat producer. India is the world's second-biggest producer and is estimated to harvest 90.23 million tons in 2011-12, as per the government data.

According to the IGC report, global trade in wheat is expected to see a dip by 7.4 million tons to 136 million tons, from record 143 million tons in 2011-12.

The export surplus wheat is expected to be lower in Europe and Argentina, but increased production and reduced competition will likely boost sales by the US, the report said.

The carryover stocks at the end of 2012-13 are seen lower by 15 million tons than last time year, at 191 million tons.

With respect to global maize production, the global body has, however, raised production estimates by more than 5% to a record 913 million tons in 2012-13. Last year, production had stood at 866 million tons.

Compared to 2011-12, the availability of maize world over is expected to be more comfortable and maize could replace some wheat in livestock feed rations.
 

Business Standard