Total CES effect for four countries may reach $1 trillion by 2030 - EDB
2012-05-25 10:58:07
The total accumulated effect of the four countries from creating a Common Economic Space (CES) and Ukraine's subsequent accession to it may reach one trillion U.S. dollars over the period until 2030.
This comprehensive assessment was conducted by the Center for Integration Research of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), together with Russian and Ukrainian scientists, EDB CEO Igor Finogenov said speaking at the fifth Astana Economic Forum, the EDB press center reported.
"The integration effect will be seen in additional GDP growth in Belarus by 14%, in Ukraine by 6%, in Kazakhstan by 3.5% and in Russia by 2%. In per capita terms, the main benefits of integration will be observed in Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, in absolute terms in Russia," Finogenov said.
However, as the EDB head emphasized, this bonus must be earned.
"If the projects are declared only on paper, they will not bring economic effect. This, if you like, is the question of political will, patience and certain courage," he said.
Finogenov said, rapid effects from the elimination of tariff barriers are quite insignificant, and the main effect can be reached only in the long term - within the framework of specific initiatives and projects in the tech industry, with positive changes in the capital and labor markets, the formation of large transnational holding companies that claim the world leadership in their industries.
According to the EDB head, getting the most from integration is possible precisely in the process industries.
"Meanwhile, industrial cooperation in aircraft and ship building, missile and space, nuclear and power engineering sectors is based both on Soviet ties and the relationships formed already in the Customs Union and Common Economic Space," he said.