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«AgroInvest» — News — Economists see China's economy slowing down further

Economists see China's economy slowing down further

2012-05-24 16:21:06

Economists are warning of tough times ahead for China, forecasting a further slowdown in the second quarter.

And while some experts say this will result in a pullback in regional markets, others see opportunities to buy.

There are growing worries over the outlook for China, with the World Bank warning that further easing in growth will have a ripple affect across the region.

It is forecasting growth in the world's number two economy to moderate to 8.2 percent this year - down from 9.2 percent in 2011.

In the first quarter of this year, growth came in at 8.1 percent - the slowest pace of growth in about three years.

And some economists say second quarter economic indicators may come in even weaker.

Independent economist Andy Xie said: "The economy was able to grow exports enormously, and to finance government spending. Now as the exports slow down, the government spending is becoming too big to sustain. I think the government is not addressing this problem. So I think the economic difficulties will continue."

Mr Xie says there must be policy reforms aimed at reviving growth, such as tax cuts, to support domestic consumption.

And amid a gloomy outlook for the US and Europe, he does not expect the slump in global markets to pick up without fundamental economic reforms.

Global economic uncertainty and jitters over the eurozone have hit stock markets around the world.

But some market-watchers see opportunities to buy.

Some portfolio managers say they are optimistic wealth and spending power will continue to grow in Asia.

Some investment management firms like T.Rowe Price are positive on consumption-related plays such as food and retail firms.

Anh Lu, Portfolio Manager at T.Rowe Price, said: "We own some of the luxury goods companies where again, they have very strong branding. And I think what's important there is that the brands haven't been over-saturated. I think you have to be very specific.

I think over the last couple of years all luxury good have done very well. But I think going forward you have to be a little more discriminate about which categories and which brands haven't over-expanded."

T. Rowe Price says there could be a market rebound in the second half of the year, with investors picking up bargains.

 

 

channelnewsasia.com