In addition, estimates put economic growth this year about 1% lower than the IMF forecast of 1.5%.

Analysts opinions converge to a decrease in seasonally adjusted GDP in the first quarter compared with the previous quarter, estimates -0.3% was -0.2.

As in last year’s fourth quarter GDP contracted by 0.2% in seasonally adjusted from July to September period, the economy will be considered in technical recession, a situation that reflects two consecutive quarters of decline from the previous quarter.

GDP, up from last year

At the same time, however, analysts see GDP up from first quarter last year, estimates ranging between 1 and 1.4%.

“new growth forecast is 1.4% in Q1 compared to Q1 in 2011. on seasonally adjusted data, we anticipate a smaller contraction of 0.3% of GDP in Q1 2012 from Q4 2011. If the calculation exclude agriculture, GDP growth in Q1 2012 from Q4 2011 should be positive. In Q1 2012 Industrial production was weaker than anticipated due to bad weather in February and weaker demand in the euro area.

UniCredit Group anticipated eurozone economic stagnation in Q1 2012. Domestic demand was the engine of economic growth in Q1 2012, retail sales more than offsetting the negative contribution of industry expectations. At the same time, investments in infrastructure have helped the construction sector to grow, despite activititatii decline in building construction, “said chief economist at UniCredit Tiriac, Dan Sleeve .

Analysts bet on technical recession

Economist RBS Romania, Catalina Molnar explained that the data published to date by the National Institute of Statistics for the various sectors seem to confirm expectations of quarterly GDP reduction, observing a negative evolution of the industry (quarter on quarter), a strong decrease of construction, the services rendered, sales and service centers and only a slight increase in sales retail.

“In annual terms, however, we expect an increase of about 1%, down from 1.9% in Q4 2011, due to deteriorating economic activity in all sectors. Weather Conditions extreme and deteriorating external demand were the main negative factors, “Molnar said.

Entry into technical recession is anticipated and BCR analysts, whose estimates for the first quarter GDP is -0.2 % (seasonally adjusted) and +1.3% annualized.

“Household consumption was most likely a positive contribution to economic growth, while industry was affected by compression of external demand”, Florin Eugen Sinca argue, BCR analyst.

Raiffeisen Bank and ING Bank analysts is of the opinion also that the economy will enter technical recession, with a GDP of -0.3% estimate for Q4 2011. Raiffeisen sees an advance from the first quarter of 2011 of 0.8%, while ING anticipates an increase of 1.4%.

“Our estimates for the evolution of economic activity in the first quarter growth puts the 1.3% in annual terms. available macroeconomic data show a negative growth of exports in the first quarter and a slowdown in industrial production. poor performance of the main economic drivers can be interpreted and seasonal context, considering the difficult winter, ” further commented Georgiana Constantinescu, Credit Europe Bank analyst.

growth of 1% in 2012

On the whole year, analysts rely mostly on an advance GDP of around 1%, 0.5 percentage points lower than the IMF forecast of 1.5%, and 0.7 percent less than estimated by the National Weather, 1.7%.

“Exports have been affected by developments in the euro area and in the local context of deleveraging, credit advances not, mainly because of pressure from the capitalization of European banks. It is true that no request is not conducive to credit. only choice that we hope to more sustainable growth was to absorb EU funds, which became a fad that totata world wants, but not much is happening. progress is much weaker than expected, “says Ionut Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank.

He believes that Romania has a relatively stabilized the economy, the macro balances are under control, even if the current account deficit over the region, but an economy that resources has increased.

“Fuel economy is not growing. And this fuel is difficult to find if capital flows are no longer what they once were. do not think it would be much higher too soon. must find resources where they are, that EU funds in the first place. No European money we need to look at under 2% growth from here to there, “added Davies.

Raiffeisen estimates This year economic growth of 0.5%, only one third of what the IMF predicts.

“For now, our forecast provides an acceleration of GDP growth in Q2 2012 from Q1 2012, but could forecast be modified after UniCredit Group will reduce economic growth expectations for the euro area. Since the beginning until now, foreign demand hindered economic activity in Romania. Growth in demand will be supported by higher wages, but not enough to compensate for any EU recession, “added Dan Sleeve.

Chief Economist of UniCredit Tiriac said that the current forecast for 2012 is +1.2%, but will fall below 1% if the UniCredit Group will reduce economic growth forecast for the euro area.

“A slight recession in the euro area would mean a very low growth or stagnation for the Romanian economy. main risks to forecast euro area GDP growth coming from, the political situation in Greece and the fragile economies of Southern Europe “, added the Sleeve.

The third is placed in official projections and estimates of GDP for this year’s RBS analysts Romania.

” For the whole year we have an estimate of economic growth of about 0.5%, reflecting a drop in quarterly distribution even in annual terms in the third quarter, when the negative effect of agriculture will reach the peak, “said Catalina Molnar.

economic growth recovering salary increase

BCR analysts believe the outlook for coming quarters are better than his first three and expects a return economic growth, as public sector wage increases and stabilizing external demand in the euro area.

“In all of 2012 we expect a growth of 1.2% given that Romania is one of the few European countries have fiscal space for providing economic stimulus “, summed Sinca.

less than 1% longer places and projects growth of ING Bank, with a 0.8% the end, and category forecasts “optimistic” estimate only join Credit Europe, which anticipates a real GDP advance of 2.1%.

“For the full year 2012 our estimate puts growth at 2 , 1%, supported by a slight recovery in consumption due to growth in public sector wages and a good agricultural production. main risks related to weather the current realization of extremely negative scenario related to the debt crisis in the eurozone – Greece out of the euro and possible contagion effects, “said Georgiana Constantinescu.

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