Ukraine. Full economic recovery expected by late 2013 - ICU analysts
2012-05-03 11:00:59
The Ukrainian economy can fully recover from the deep recession of 2008-2009 by the end of 2013, analysts of the group Investment Capital Ukraine (ICU) said on the basis of their study.
"Despite the relatively high rates of economic growth in 2010-2011 (4.2% and 5.2% YOY), GDP is still below the pre-crisis level reached in the 2nd quarter of 2008," Oleksandr Valchyshen, head of the analytical division at the group, said.
According to him, GDP in the fourth quarter of last year was 9% lower than its peak volume in the 2nd quarter of 2008 (based on quarterly statistics on GDP in constant prices net of seasonal factors).
According to the baseline macroeconomic scenario of the group for 2012-14, real GDP growth this year will be 3.5% YOY, and the average annual real GDP growth during this period will amount to 4.6%. With this rate of growth, Ukraine's economy would fully recover no earlier than 2013, or possibly in the first quarter of 2014.
Analysts say that the main trading partners forming a major part of the demand for Ukrainian products, Russia and Turkey, fully came out of recession in the 4th quarter of last year and in the 4th quarter of 2010, respectively. Polish economy managed to avoid a recession of 2008-2009. That is, the main trade partners of Ukraine and its neighboring economies are growing at a faster pace.
At the same time, based on the IMF forecast for Ukraine's economic growth in 2012-2013, which was recently revised to downgrade the growth rate to 3% and 3.5% YOY, full recovery will not happen before the 3rd quarter of 2014.
The group Investment Capital Ukraine (ICU) was established in 2006 and provides services for securities trading, investment banking, as well as manages assets of collective investment institutions.