Expert: It will be hard to keep inflation at around 10% in 2011
2011-01-10 12:12:03
It will be difficult to keep inflation at around 10% in 2011, says financial analyst Dmytro Solohub, UKRINFORM reported, with reference to the Dzerkalo Tyzhnia (Mirror Weekly) newspaper.
"In future the government is planning to continue an uncompromising struggle against inflation. In particular, in 2011 the growth of the consumer price index is projected at 8.9% (at year-end), and in 2012 and 2013 inflation should slow to 7.9 and 6.2% respectively. However, in our view, such forecasts look overly optimistic," he said.
The expert recalled that a significant increase in utility tariffs was planned for 2011: a 25% increase in tariffs for heat and hot water from January 2011, a rise in gas prices by 50% in April (even without taking into account a possible increase in electricity tariffs) and another rise in utility tariffs. This, according to Solohub, will add about 3% to the consumer price index in 2011.
In addition, the analyst said that given that in 2011 the domestic economy will continue to gradually recover after the recent collapse (it is expected that GDP growth this year will be about 4-4.5%), consumer demand will also grow, creating pressure on prices.
Therefore, it will hardly be possible to keep inflation this year at around 10%, Solohub said, because the administrative levers of control could be effective only in the short term - two or three months, and then prices will begin to grow.
As UKRINFORM reported, according to the State Statistics Service, inflation in 2010 amounted to 9.1%.