Main factor for support of GDP in 2012 will be currency stability and stability of the financial system as a whole, this opinion was expressed by head of the TASK group analytical department Andriy Shevchyshyn.

"We downgraded current GDP estimate from 4% tо 3% for 2012, although, we see substantial risks for such forecast too. In case of realization of those risks, it is impossible to rule out possibilities of GDP's negative value, however, still we hope for the moderately optimistic forecast," Shevchyshyn has said.

The analyst considers reaching consensus on the prices for Russian gas as basic prerequisites for the current forecast, which will substantially reduce the pressure on the budget and expenses of enterprises. "Such a reduction of the gas price will allow to progress in cooperation with the IMF and not to allow a sharp rise of tariffs for population before the elections to the Verkhovna Rada," the expert noted.

The second factor for such a forecast, according to him, is expectation of the moderate fall in the agrarian sector, although unfavorable weather conditions, limited working capital with agrarian workers considerably hamper such estimates.

"Most likely, moderate trends will be prevailing on the world markets, which will keep demand for main products of Ukrainian exporters at current levels," Shevchyshyn summed up.

Additional factor, which will support GDP, according to him, will be growth of investments and capital investments ahead of UEFA EURO 2012, however, its influence will be limited only by H1.

To remind, GDP of Ukraine grew by 5.2% in 2011 against 4.2% in 2010. The government laid down a forecast of real GDP growth at 3.9% in the state budget 2012, however, it counts to keep its dynamics at 5-6%.

Ukrinform