UkrAgroConsult lowered the bar on hopes for Ukraine's wheat, damaged by a dry autumn and cold temperatures, and warned of damage to rapeseed too – but set the scene for, another, bumper corn crop.

More than 2m hectares of Ukraine's winter grain crops have been lost to winterkill, the largest area for eight seasons, after temperatures fell as low as -34 degrees Celsius, the influential analysis group said.

The damage, out of a total area of 7.1m hectares, came on top of setbacks from a dry autumn which, even before the cold snap, had left one-third of the crop in "poor" condition, with 1.29m hectares, or 18%, failing to sprout at all.

UkrAgroConsult cut by 800,000 tonnes, to 13.7m tonnes, its forecast for this year's Ukraine wheat harvest, implying a plunge in production of nearly 39% from last year.

Rival consultancy ProAgro last week forecast the crop at 14.57m tonnes.

'Hardiness is very low'

The outlook for rapeseed was poor too, with 21% of area lost to the drought even before the cold snap, which has claimed a significant part of the surviving crops.

Some 260,000 hectares of rapeseed entered the winter period with two-to-five leaves, meaning "its hardiness is very low and there is a high probability that at least half of these crops will not survive until spring", UkrAgroConsult said.

With Ukraine set to lose 30-35% of winter rapeseed, this year's harvest, including spring-sown crop, looks like falling to 1.1m tonnes.

Strong corn outlook 

However, lost winter grains at least presented the opportunity for reseeding land with spring crops, of which sunflowers looked to be a popular choice, being "drought-resistant and highly profitable".

Corn area also looked set to increase, potentially to 4m hectares, taking production of the grain to 20m tonnes – a second successive bumper harvest - also helped by an improved soil moisture profile so far in 2012.

Ukrainian imports of corn seed more than doubled at the end of last year, to levels not usually seen until the run-up to harvest, signalling an enthusiasm among farmers for the grain.

A strong harvest of corn could take Ukraine's total grains production to 45m tonnes, UkrAgroConsult said.

The figure was ahead of its previous forecast for a 44.7m-tonne crop, if down from last year's 56.7m tonnes.

Slow exports

The forecasts come amid a scramble for information on the impact of the cold temperatures, in part to assess the likely impact on exports of a country which, until drought in 2010 and duties last year, had been a top-rank wheat shipper.

UkrAgroConsult forecast that Ukraine's wheat shipments would come in at 7.6m tonnes in 2011-12 – leaving a sizable 5m-6m tonnes in storage - with logistical problems caused by the cold adding to setbacks which began with the export tariffs, which were lifted in October.

Agrimoney.com