Ukraine's real GDP will reach pre-crisis levels (the year 2008) only in 2013, according to a report prepared by analysts from the BG Capital investment company.

Experts noted that it would take more time for Ukraine than for other countries in the region in order to reach the pre-crisis level of GDP. At the same time, the average pace of economic growth in Ukraine in 2010-2011 will exceed the pace of the recovery of most economies in Central and Eastern Europe, which will mainly be linked to the low growth base after a 15.1% year-over-year decline in GDP in 2008.

BG Capital analysts expect the preservation of the high pace of economic growth in Ukraine in 2011, predicting GDP growth at 4.8% year-over-year against 4.5% in 2010. At the same time, the structure of economic growth in 2011 will undergo significant changes.

The main factor for the restoration of production this year will be a revival of consumer and investment demand, while the pace of the growth of real exports in 2011 will decline due to a slowdown in global economy. Also, there are significant risks that rapid growth in domestic demand will largely contribute to an increase in imports rather than domestic production.

The state budget for 2011 foresees GDP growth at 4.5% in 2011, with inflation at 8.9%.

UKRINFORM