The International Monetary Fund has this week cut Russia’s 2012 growth forecast to 3.3 per cent from 4.1 per cent, a sign that the Fund believes Russia especially vulnerable to a slowdown in global growth. The global growth number for 2012 was cut from 4 per cent to 3.3 per cent.

Most analysts have been cutting Russia forecasts, but the IMF is even more pessimistic than they are. According to Ivan Tchakarov of Renaissance Capital, the Moscow investment bank, this is not a good sign.

“What, however, does not happen very often is for the IMF to feel gloomier than private sector forecasters” Tchakarov said in a research note. The average forecast for the private sector institutions is 3.6 per cent, above the IMF’s.

But Rencap is even more bearish than the IMF, forecasting GDP growth of 2.3 per cent.

All this leaves Vladimir Putin’s government in a qunadary as their man campaigns to return to the Kremlin in next month’s presidential election.

The finance ministry’s official forecast is now looking a tad optimistic at 3.7 per cent. It was approved by the government last month and prepared some weeks before that – so it’s starting to look a little obsolete, even though we are still in January.

The central bank’s baseline scenario, prepared in October 2011, is the same as that of the at 3.7 per cent, assuming an oil price of $100 a barrel. Its optimistic forecast is 4.7 per cent GDP growth and its pessimistic is 3.3 per cent. Which, curiously, is the same as the IMF’s baseline figure.

The IMF’s own pessimistic forecast – which considers a possible new eurozone shock – takes a full 4 percentage points of its global baseline numbers. It has not said what would happen to Russia under this scenario. Russia would be hurt less than, for example, Poland and other states that are closely integrated with the eurozone. But it’s clear it would struggle to avoid recession.

All this suggests that Russia’s official numbers may need revising – but don’t expect any changes before the election.

The Financial Times