This year's inflation in Ukraine could reach 9% due to lower than in 2011 grain yield. Economic growth in Ukraine in 2012 will be only 1%. This opinion was expressed by Erste Bank experts in their research report.

According to analyst Marian Zablocki, a record low rate of inflation last year (4.6%) has been associated with as a record grain yield. Foodstuff accounts for half of household consumption, Zablocki said. This year Ukraine will collect only 45 million tons of grain, and therefore prices will be higher. However, the greatest factor in the growth of prices, Zablocki believes, is the price of gas. Even if the cost of Russian gas halves, the gap between retail price and the price of imports will still be significant. Thus, the rise in prices for housing services is expected, the Erste Bank expert forecasts.

As for economic growth, its pace will be fairly small. In 2011, the Ukrainian GDP "grew up" by 4%, but already there are signs of a slowdown, Zablocki believes. The reason for this is a global economic slowdown. According to the expert, the latest indicators of industrial production for export-oriented industries are poor: metallurgy and mechanical engineering, who accounted for half of exports in 2010, are lowering their production. This is reflected in the reduction of export even in the third quarter of 2011, Zablocki underscored.

According to the forecasts of the bank, this year Ukraine's GDP growth will be 1%.
 

Ukrinform