Currently, the main risks for the Ukrainian and world economies are coming out of the eurozone hit by a debt crisis, Forex Club in Ukraine chief Mykola Ivchenko said at a press conference in UKRINFORM. According to him, the peak of the world economy's slowdown will be in the first half of 2012.

"The Ukrainian exports of goods and services in Europe are 29% of the total. So next year we should not expect a particularly high growth in exports of Ukraine to some EU countries, in particular, Spain and Hungary, whose economies were in a quandary. However, staring the second half of 2012, the debt problems of European countries will start to ease gradually," Ivchenko emphasized.

According to him, the pressure on the state of Ukraine's foreign trade balance will be imposed by the development of the economies of the CIS and Asian countries, where there are certain risks. The inflation rate in the country at end-2011 is unlikely to exceed 6.5%. This is even if in December it will stand at 2%.

However, next year the consumer inflation may be fixed at the rate of 2011 or higher, as gas prices are expected to rise. Much will depend on the next year crop.

"World commodity markets in the first half of the year will be under pressure amid the debt crisis in the eurozone, slowdown of the global economy and lower demand for goods. This will keep the prices in Ukraine in the first two quarters of 2012 "- proposed expert.

According to Forex Club analysts, the pace of inflation is expected to accelerate late in the third - early in the fourth quarter of 2012. The probability of recession in Europe is currently estimated at 40%, global recession - 35%-38%. The Eurocurrency rate on the international market during the first half of 2012 may decline. In Ukraine, in this case, the cash euro with the stable dollar will cost UAH 10.10 and cheaper.

"The average selling rate of the cash dollar in the country by the end of the first half of 2012 is likely to be UAH 8.20-8.25," Ivchenko predicts.

Ukrinform