Capital flight from Russia, already at $64 billion this year, is likely to intensify in coming months as a weak showing by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's United Russia party in parliamentary elections heightens political uncertainty, economists said.

The net capital outflow, blamed on European banks and wealthy Russians concerned about a government shake-up, is now expected to exceed $85 billion in 2011, acting Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said late Monday.

The bearish forecast came as Fitch Ratings warned about political uncertainty in Russia, a day after voting ended in the Duma election, with Putin's United Russia getting less than 50% of the vote. Mr. Putin on Tuesday said he sees "serious and substantial renewals" in government personnel after presidential elections set for March of next year--which he is still expected to win handily.

"People at the moment don't have an idea which officials will be around next year and who will be gone," said Julia Tsepliaeva, chief economist at BNP Paribas in Moscow. "If you're a businessman or a company that has an arrangement with a certain bureaucrat, this lack of clarity may lead you to move capital abroad."

The exodus of capital this year has weighed on the ruble, which has weakened by more than 15% from its peak this year, even as the average price for Russia's oil this year is higher than ever before. UniCredit SpA's Moscow unit sent at least $5.5 billion abroad in the third quarter through loans to non-Russian banks, including other units of UniCredit, as European lenders sought additional liquidity amid a debt scare linked to Greece and other euro-zone nations. Politics aside, a steep drop in oil prices or a worsening of the debt crisis in Europe could suck even more cash out of Moscow.

Russia's leadership "needs to have vision, and Russia needs more than stability or the status quo," said Tim Ash, head of emerging markets at Royal Bank of Scotland. "Unless we see real, meaningful change, outflows will continue, even if we see no drop in oil prices."

Market watchers, however, have questioned whether Mr. Putin will respond to dipping poll numbers by initiating new reforms—or more tightly controlling the economic and political process.

Next year's outflows are likely to continue at the current pace if oil prices stay at present levels, Ash said. Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank, said she expects 2012 outflows to hit at least $40 billion, although that number may be too low considering possible fallout from the Duma election.

Some economists, however, expect capital flows to turn positive in the second half of next year, when the make-up of the new government becomes clear.

"There is no place to make the kind of money businesses can make here, if they have the proper administrative connections," BNP's Ms. Tsepliaeva said.

The Wall Street Journal