Ukraine not yet ready to emerge from crisis - ULIE head
2010-12-20 15:19:06
The current rate of growth of economic indicators is not enough for recovery of the Ukrainian economy from the crisis. This opinion was expressed by Chairman of the Ukrainian League of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Anatoliy Kinakh.
"Ukraine's economy by the results of 11 months actually shows a growth rate to 5% of GDP and industrial production growth of about 11%. Bearing in mind that the previous year of 2009 was finished with the worst rates in Europe, GDP declined by 15% and industrial output by 22%, you realize that this pace is clearly insufficient for our state. We will need a minimum of 2-3 years just to reach the level of 2007," the ULIE head said.
According to him, the task of the incumbent government is to create on the basis of the already taken measures the conditions for faster and more dynamic economic growth.
Kinakh also stressed that the growth of the country's public debt "poses huge risks for Ukraine." According to him, the national debt by October was 51 billion dollars, an increase of 28% over 9 months of 2010, including domestic debt rose by 48% and external by 27%.
He noted that, if we take the draft budget for 2011, only the servicing of the state debt will take about 23 billion UAH (1 USD - 7.96 UAH), and its repayment an additional of 62 billion UAH. "In fact, 85 billion UAH, and this is 1/4 of our consolidated budget, should be directed to the servicing and repayment of public debt in 2011," Kinakh said.
To solve the problem, according to the ULIE head, the entire country must work hard, especially the National Bank and the Government.
According to macro-forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the draft state budget for 2011 provides for GDP growth of 4.5%, inflation of 8.9%, nominal GDP of 1.253 trillion UAH, producer price index of 11.3%, payroll of 391 billion UAH and the hryvnia exchange rate of 7.95 UAH/USD.
According to the World Bank forecasts, public and publicly guaranteed debt of Ukraine in 2010-2012 will rise by about 1% of GDP. In particular, in 2010 it will make 41.6% of GDP, in 2011 - 42.8% of GDP and in 2012 - 42.6% of GDP.