Stock market will remain positive until year-end, experts say
2010-12-20 15:16:21
Positive situation will continue on the Ukrainian stock market until the end of the year. The growth of domestic indexes in the next two weeks can make 0.5-1.5% more. However, the beginning of 2011 will be calm for the market.
The first two months of trading next year, according to X-Trade Brokers Ukraine experts, will take place in the side channel on the background of reduced business activity in Ukraine and settlement of the euro zone problems, which accumulate and manifest themselves as the maturity of foreign loans approaches.
Experts believe that no country of the united Europe participants will declare bankruptcy. However, economic growth in the debtor countries will continue to remain within 1% per annum, which will not allow markets growing actively. The growth of Ukrainian floors on the background of these events may reach 15-20% by July 2011.
The local stock market in mid-February this year received a powerful impetus to development. Ukrainian Exchange index UX by mid-April increased by 73.3% and reached its historic high of 2599.42 points. PFTS for the same period increased by 76.05% to reach 1,030.28.
With the advent of the first rumors about a volatile situation in the euro area and the huge debt in almost every country, including Greece, world indices moved into a phase of falling. The U.S. Dow Jones index from May to July fell by 14.5%, S&P500 by 17.5%. Ukrainian stock index PFTS and UX, as more sensitive, due to low liquidity by the end of May were down 44.4% to 1,444.79 points and 40.4% to 613.18 points, respectively.
In the second half of the year and until the end of October, trade on Ukrainian stock exchanges took place in the side channel. During this period, the markets showed a weak correlation with the international floors on a background of global fears about the reliability of the emerging economies. Stock indexes in Europe and America began their recovery in August. Ukrainian markets joined them in late October, when first information started to come on the approval by the IMF of the development policy selected by the country, and allocation of the second tranche of the loan to stabilize the budget deficit.
"UX index of Ukrainian Exchange from late October to December added 29.3%, having reached the mark of 2,327.05, and PFTS 283% to 924.23 points. The most important internal factor supporting this growth is the Tax Code adopted, which provides sufficient benefits to big businesses, whose shares are just traded in the market," says Volodymyr Oleksiuk, an expert with the X-Trade Brokers Ukraine analytical department.