Analysts expect preservation of high rates of the economy growth in Ukraine in 2011, forecasting the GDP growth by 4.8% against 4.5% in 2010. At the same time, the structure of the economic growth next year will undergo substantial changes, the analytical review of BG Capital Company reads.

The main factor of the production renewal in 2011, according to experts, will be revival of consumption and investment demand, whereas real export growth rates will fall as a result of slowing down of the world economy.

There are also considerable risks that a prompt increase of in internal demand will mainly promote a growth of imports rather than domestic production, the review says.

The company analysts increased the annual forecast of the GDP growth in Ukraine in 2010 to 4.5% against 4.1% forecasted earlier. A reason for the revision became statistical data for Q3. The renewed forecast supposes that Ukraine's GDP in Q4 will increase by 4.0% year on year, having enhanced from 3.5% in Q3.

By BG Capital estimates, the GDP growth in 2010 will be ensured mainly at the expense of an increase in the goods and services volumes.

In total, average rates of the economic growth in Ukraine in 2010-2011 will exceed the rates of renewal in the majority of economies in Central and Eastern Europe that will considerably be related to the low growth base following the GDP fall by 15.1% in 2008.

However, according to experts, Ukraine will need more time against other countries of the region in order to reach the pre-crisis rates of the GDP. By estimates of BG Capital, real GDP of Ukraine will reach the 2008 level only in 2013.

The Cabinet counts that in 2012-2013, GDP growth rates in Ukraine will increase to 6.5%.

In Q1 2010, real GDP grew by 4.9%, in Q2 - by 5.9% and in Q3 - by 3.5%.

In 2009, the GDP fall reached 15.1%.

UKRINFORM